Saturday, September 12, 2009

September just isn't for pennant races - grouping the teams

Every year we go through it, there are three groups of teams in September. The first group is those headed to the playoffs and those trying to reach the playoffs in the wild card race. The second group are teams with big payrolls and expectations trying to figure out what went wrong and the final group are teams hopelessly out of it and using the time to utilize a youth movement that they hope will someday get them in group one.

This is where I see them:

GROUP 1

Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Twins (though they're trying to hold on for dear life), Phillies, Marlins and Braves (also holding on), Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies, Giants

GROUP 2 - Rays, White Sox, Indians, Athletics, Mets, Cubs

GROUP 2A - Teams that we were unsure of what they would be - Mariners, Blue Jays, Astros, Brewers, Diamondbacks

GROUP 3 - Orioles, Royals, Padres, Nationals, Pirates and Reds.

It seems like the same teams are in Group 3 year after year though the Padres made the playoffs as recently as 2006.

But for the others, it seems like they are always in group three. The Orioles last had a good season in 1997, the Royals have had one good season since 1994, the Pirates have now had a record-setting 17 straight losing seasons and the Nationals have regressed since their 81-81 debut in the Nation's capital

So the question is how do you escape group three? By being in this group, you have the best chance at top draft picks. As I stated recently to a former co-worker, if the 1991 Yankees were not in this group, they never get Derek Jeter.

The best way is to get draft picks and trade off other players for prospects. The Orioles are getting some praise for that and though it currently has them at the second-worst record in the AL.

Out of any of those teams, the Orioles appear to have the most potential, but if you combined the best players of the five teams how would it look?

1b - Joey Votto
2b - Brian Roberts
SS - Cristian Guzman
3b - Ryan Zimmerman
C - Matt Wieters
RF - Nick Markakis
CF - Adam Jones
LF - Chase Headley
SP - Zach Grienke, John Lannan, Chris Tillman, Edinson Volquez, Ross Ohlendorf,

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